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Message: [QUOTE="Alex Wilhelm, post: 1461"] Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, e-commerce has been on a tear. Lockdowns, a move to remote work and other impacts of COVID pushed a great number of global citizens to spend more of their money online through e-commerce sites and on-demand services. For companies like Shopify, the period since March 2020 has proven a bonanza. The Canadian e-commerce giant spent last March bouncing between $350 and $420 per share. Today, the company is worth $1,554.74 per share. [HR][/HR] [B][I]The Exchange explores startups, markets and money. Read it [URL='https://techcrunch.com/subscribe/?tpcc=theexchange']every morning on TechCrunch+[/URL] or get [URL='https://techcrunch.com/newsletters']The Exchange newsletter[/URL] every Saturday.[/I][/B] [HR][/HR] Other players saw their businesses scale as consumers spent more time buying online and less time in stores. Instacart’s [URL='https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/17/are-rivals-snacking-on-instacarts-core-grocery-delivery-market/']grocery delivery business accelerated[/URL]. DoorDash [URL='https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/04/doordash-amps-its-ipo-range-ahead-of-blockbuster-ipo/']went public on the back of a demand surge[/URL]. Roblox [URL='https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/08/the-roblox-gambit/']usage skyrocketed[/URL], sending it to the public markets on a high. The list goes on. [URL='https://techcrunch.com/subscribe/?tpcc=theexchange'][IMG]https://techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/exchange-banner-sq-grn-plus.jpg?w=300[/IMG][/URL]But while some sectors did well, and many have continued to wow investors, the investor-thrilling run that e-commerce companies, in particular, has been on for five quarters could be slowing. [HEADING=1]Black Friday and earnings warnings[/HEADING] While I despise astroturfed holidays that revolve around shopping, they can provide useful data points. You will not be shocked that Black Friday was a [URL='https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/black-friday-shopping-in-stores-drops-28percent-from-pre-pandemic-levels.html']bit of a bust[/URL] in terms of U.S. retail foot traffic. New COVID variants will do that, frankly. But it may surprise you that [I]online[/I] shopping as part of the Black Friday fauxliday [URL='https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/28/22806233/black-friday-online-spending-decreased-first-time']fell[/URL] compared to 2020 levels. Not that the declines were severe, but seeing online spending drift to $8.9 billion this year from $9.0 billion last year made me sit up and take note. Perhaps we should not have been surprised. There were warning signs. Shopify’s Q3 earnings, [URL='https://news.shopify.com/shopify-announces-third-quarter-2021-financial-results']reported October 28, 2021[/URL], were a letdown. The company’s posted revenues of $1.12 billion [URL='https://www.yahoo.com/now/shopify-shop-q3-earnings-miss-163804665.html']missed estimates[/URL], despite posting 46% year-over-year growth. Earnings per share and gross merchandise volume [URL='https://www.investors.com/news/technology/shopify-stock-shopify-earnings-q32021/']also missed[/URL] analyst guesses. [/QUOTE]

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